Research

Lack, S.A., and N.I. Fox, 2006(7): An Examination of the Effect of Wind-drift on Radar-derived Surface Rainfall Estimations. Accepted by Atmospheric Research, August 2006.

Fox, N.I. and C.K. Wikle, 2005: A Bayesian quantitative precipitation nowcasting scheme. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 264-275.

Fox, N.I. and C.K. Wikle, 2005: Providing distributed forecasts of precipitation using a Bayesian nowcast scheme. Atmospheric Science Letters, 6, 59-65.

Fox, N.I. and J.W. Wilson, 2005: Very short period quantitative precipitation forecasting. Atmospheric Science Letters, 6, 7-11.

Lack, S.A. and N.I. Fox, 2005: Errors in surface rainfall rates retrieved from radar due to wind drift. Atmospheric Science Letters, 6, 71-77.

B. Xu, C.K. Wikle and N.I. Fox, 2005: A Kernel-based spatio-temporal dynamical model for nowcasting radar precipitation. Accepted for publication in J. Am. Stat. Assoc.

Intercomparison of various nowcasting schemes,  including the new UMBRELLA nowcaster with different physical parameterizations.

Current Presentations and Publications

Purpose:

• To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various nowcasting schemes for different types of rainfall events over different geographic locations.

Tasks:

• Currently evaluating WDSS-II nowcast products and S-PROG with UMBRELLA using different scoring methodologies.  This will include a new verification procedure utilizing Procrustes analysis, which can be utilized in real time environments to show forecast biases.
• Also, working on incorporating different physical parameterizations for the UMBRELLA nowcaster, which is currently purely stochastic. 

Incorporating radar data into hydrological modeling studies of the Mark Twain Lake watershed

Purpose:

• To study the usefulness of radar precipitation data in a hydrological model of a poorly instrumented watershed.

Objective:

• To improve estimates of run-off and transport from a model by the use of spatially distributed precipitation information.


George's mesoanalysis website!

A Deterministic Evaluation of Storm Type versus Storm Motion

Purpose:

• To effectively classify and identify types of storms by their environmental characteristics

  Objective:

  • To use the classification system to make forecasts of uncertainty and better forcasts of severe convective cells.

Evaluating Radar and Lightning Data in Convective Snowfall

• To better understand the structure of thundersnow bands and what processes take place within the cloud to produce heavy snowfall with lightning and thunder.  

• The vertical profiles of thundersnow cells/bands will be analyzed looking for slantwise and/or upright tendencies. Several lightning parameters (polarity, multiplicity, signal strength) will be measured and compared to typical values. The presence of banding within the radar reflectivity will be examined, along with the preferred location of lightning discharges within that snow band. Finally, a correlation between the location of the lightning discharge and areas of heaviest snowfall will be investigated.  


Research on Convective Snows