UMC Climate Change Group Long Range Forecast for Winter 2015 - 2016


Issued 1 February 2016

This is the last Offical Forecast to be issued on the HTML site. We're going to keep statistics only here. The Forecast descriptions and maps will migrate to the powerpoint.


Forecast Scores since Winter 2002-2003. This represents 26 temperature and precipitation forecasts. our group continues to show some skill for the region above Climatology, and better than NCEP products. In terms of Skill, the difference between Climatology and perfection, we stand at 13% overall. NCEP at -10%. With temperature we are at 22%, but 0% with precipitation. Our summer forecasts are at 18%, while winter is at 8%

  • Forecasts Temp/precip points

  • Winter

  • GCC 16/12
  • Climo. 11/13
  • NCEP 7/11
  • Summer

  • GCC 12/15
  • Climo. 7/14
  • NCEP 7/13

  • Total

  • GCC 28/27
  • Climo. 18/27
  • NCEP 14/24