UMC Climate Change Group Long Range Forecast for Summer 2014

Issued 2 February 2014

Our forecast for the summer of 2014 indicate things should be good. The models and our gut tells us El nino is on the way. There are even hints of it in the data. El nino next year should be weak (See Lupo 2008, Birk et al. 2010). It is true ENSO does not directly impact summer, but the direction of transition does (Ratley et al. 2003, Lupo et al. 2014). Last summer we did not do as well with our forecast but our winter forecast (see below) was also OK. Statistically, transitions toward El Nino presage mild temperatures and decent rains (in number and intensity). Our forecast for summer is bullish, near normal temperatures as well as precipiation. NCEP is also forecasting a milder summer, but no real forecast for precipitation, so we'll say normal.

Winter 2013-2014 Recap: We had continued to lean La Nina. We were in a B/G type pattern, and this is predicted to continue. These SST patterns tend to be 50-50 on Warm cold, and both tend to lean wet. But, when G types are warm, they are very very warm. B-types tend to trend a bit chilly when they go negative. We leaned toward colder than normal from 0.5-1.0 stdevs, while wetter by the same. NCEP agreed with us on wetter, but says quite warm in the other direction. Farmer's almanac said cold and snowy. We thought 20 - 26 inches of snow here which is within the climatological normal, but a little higher than normal. We didn't say it, but blocking was an issue. Warm SSTs in the Gulf of AK and La Nina combined to make the winter a "blockfest".

Here are the numbers for the Summer 2014 forecast for Columbia Missouri and the surrounding region. The standard deviation (+/-) represents what we call the typical range for that value, and 70% of years should lie within this range. These are generally reliable for most of mid-Missouri from the Ozarks to the Iowa border and Eastern MO. Also, this year I've included verification statistics, see Lupo et al. 2008 - the link is Kelsey II on the main GCC page. Forecast scoring can also be found there, 2 points for a perfect forecast, and 0 for a bust.

NOTE: These are our forecasts and they are based on the information found in several publications on the Climate Group's website (see Climate Variability section). One should not consider that these will be 100% reliable. Also, they forecast the AGGREGATE statistical character of the summer (June, July, August) or winter (December, January, February) season. This does not mean that warm and cold spells, wet and dry spells will not all occur in one month or season. Please use with caution. If you have any questions contact me at: