UMC Climate Change Group Long Range Forecast for Summer 2008

Issued 11 February 2008

This powerpoint presentation has some information recaping the Winter of 2007-2008 and how we did on this forecast. At this point, we should do well. Our rationale for the summer forecast for 2008 is also given. Additionally, the scores for the last five years are given. Skill score is how much better we're doing than climatology, and how close we are to a "perfect forecast". Our summer forecast skills are very good.

Here are the numbers for the winter recap and the summer 2008 forecasts, for Columbia Missouri. The standard deviation (+/-) represents what we call the typical range for that value, and 70% of years should lie within this range. These are generally reliable for most of mid-Missouri from the Ozarks to the Iowa border and Eastern MO.

NOTE: These are our forecasts and they are based on the information found in several publications on the Climate Group's website (see Climate Variability section). One should not consider that these will be 100% reliable. Also, they forecast the AGGREGATE statistical character of the summer or winter season. This does not mean that warm and cold spells, wet and dry spells will not all occur in one month or season. Please use with caution.

• Winter Recap:
  
  
• Columbia Winter Norms: Temp 31.9 F +/- 2.8 F
  
  
• Columbia Winter Norms: Precip 5.84 inches +/- 2.17 inches
  
  
• Our Winter Forecast: Warmer than normal by less than 0.5 standard deviations, wetter by the same.
  
  
• CPC Winter Forecast: Well above normal temperatures, we interpret to be 0.5-1.0 standard deviations, and wetter than normal or the same forecast as ours.
  
  
• As of 29 February, we were on pace to be 0.5 F above normal for the winter and we had 9.68 inches of rain.
  
  
  
• Summer 2008 Forecast:
  
  
• Columbia Summer Norms: Temp 75.6 F +/- 1.7 F
  
  
• Columbia Summer Norms: Precip 11.44 inches +/- 4.91 inches
  
  
• Our summer forecast: similar to last year, 0.5 - 1.0 standard deviations above normal (76.5 - 77.4), and precipitation 0.5-1.0 stanard deviations below normal (6.51 - 9.00 inches). See power point for more details. We feel June will be close to normal and the warm dry weather will come in July and August. We expect much of the state will be drier than normal and warmer, especially toward the south.
  
  
• CPC forecasts "equal chances" - see powerpoint.